Oye, Estiwi...

[Sancho]

¿Qué es todo eso de inflacción de la zona euro, que Irán cobrará la gasolina en euros, y el desplome de la Bolsa en Tailandia?

[Stewie]

¿Qué es todo eso de inflacción de la zona euro, que Irán cobrará la gasolina en euros, y el desplome de la Bolsa en Tailandia?

Pues así a bote pronto no sé que te diga, voy a informarme y te hago un memorándum personalizado con mimo y dedicasión.

[Nicotin]

Irán cobrará la gasolina en euros

Huuuy huy huy huy

[Sancho]

Si, si, huele a inflamable.

[ritalacantaora]

Y QUE OPINA FRANCO DE TODO ESTO?????

[rianxeira]

Ya salio la cansina, tardaba mucho.

Sewie, el memorandum dedicamelo con cariño, que oi la noticia de iran por la mañana y asi de primeras parece mas una jugada de joder al imperio del mal que de medidas economicas.

[tonetti]

jejejeje, Irak antes de ser invadido era el más firme defensor en la organización de paises productores de petroleo (opep) del cambio de divida a euros para las cotizaciones del crudo.

[Stewie]

¡Ueheheh, ya tengo un tema!

Pues de esta jugada no me había enterado yo, parece que se hablo más hace un año, que es de cuando es la noticia. No estoy seguro, pero se conoce que la IOB (Iranian Oil Bourse) echaría andar en 2007 y de ahí que se vuelva a sacar a colación.

Según leo y pienso, minipunto para Rianche, es una patada en los cojones a los infieles amiricanos dada con mucha mala hostia pero muy inteligentemente.

Datos a tener en cuenta:

- El dólar ha sido y sigue siguiendo la divisa por antonomasia, lo que hace que sea la preferida por los bancos centrales.

- El petróleo se paga en dólares ya en Arabia, Londres, Texas o Noruega, lo que hace que India y China demanden una cantidad ingente de dólares para cubrir sus crecientes necesidades energeticas. Esto a los EE.UU. le viene de perlas, puesto que que contrarresta el déficit por c/c creciente (que presiona a la baja el dólar).

- Irán es el 2º productor mundial de petróleo y su mayor socio comercial es la UE.


En esto que va Irán y empieza a vender barilles en leuros y los chinos, indios además de nosotros los europeos, nos encontramos ante la posibilidad de pagar 60$ por barril o 45-50€. De repente toda la UE, más una parte considerable de China e India dejarán de demandar dólares y empezarán a llenar sus arcas de leuros. Y aquí viene la patada en los cojones, EE.UU basa su crecimiento económico fundamentalmente en la demanda interna (el consumo del americanito medio) que paga con un dólar fuerte todo el made-in-china. Si los chinos no "sostienen" el dólar, a los americanos no les saldrá tan barato financiar su consumo y una recesión es lo más probable.

Aquí lo dice mejormente:

If oil-trading in euros were to get going, the already-existent global trend of foreign currency reserves being shifted from dollars to euros would rapidly accelerate. In turn, “countries switching to euro reserves from dollar reserves would bring down the value of the U.S. currency. Imports would start to cost Americans a lot more …. As countries and businesses converted their dollar assets into euro assets, the U.S. property and stock market bubbles would, without doubt, burst” (The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, Nov. 15, 2004).

Luego se especula con que Noruega (que tiene petróleo para aburrir) se vea arrastarda y empiece a vender también en leuros. Los británicos se supone que se bajaran los pantalones y seguirán vendiendo en dólares para no hacerles la faena a sus primos.

Ulteriores implicancias serían el acercamiento a la UE por parte de Irán (de ahí lo que dice Toñis que pasó con Irak) y el ya mentado efecto domino por el que Rusia, RU y Noruega podrían decantarse por el euro para comercializar sus hidrocarburos y el desplazamiento del dólar como divisa hegemónica a nivel mundial.

Will Iran’s oil kill the U.S. dollar?
9/14/2005 3:45:00 AM GMT
If Iran launched its IOB, the U.S. dollar will weaken and the euro strengthen

Speculations have begun regarding whether the proposed March 2006 launch of the Iranian oil bourse (IOB), will become the catalyst for a significant blow to the position of the U.S. dollar?

Iran is about to begin pricing its oil in euros. Unfortunately, just about everyone would benefit--except the United States- Without some form of U.S. intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade.

The U.S. dollar has been the strongest currency of the world for more than half a century, with about 70% of percent of all currency reserves in American dollars.

This could be a logical explanation for why the Islamic republic would be the U.S.’s next target.

This is closely related to the fact that oil, the most important commodity traded in the world, is mostly priced in U.S. dollars. The majority of countries that are oil importers have to buy their oil in U.S. dollars, which forces them to keep most of their foreign currency in dollars.

The crippling U.S. debt crisis makes its fragile economy mostly dependent on the high demand for its currency in order to remain afloat.

There is a move underway by Iran, the world’s second-largest producer of crude oil—and labeled a member of President Bush’s so-called “axis of evil”, that threatens the current dominant position of the American dollar.

Tehran has lately confirmed its plan to create a euro-based exchange in oil—to compete with the London and New York dollar-denominated oil exchanges, both American-owned.

If proved successful, the Iranian oil bourse (IOB) is expected to give the euro a foothold in the international oil trade, solidifying its status as an alternative oil transaction currency. This would eventually lead to a major currency flight from the dollar to the euro—and a disaster for America.

The IOB will see crude oil, petrochemicals and other commodities of the same kind traded in euros.

But the question here is what are Iran’s motives behind such a move?

According to economists, Iran’s move does make sense, especially since the European Union is Iran’s biggest trading partner. Also it will deal a major blow to Iran’s archfoe America, and, by hoping to make Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region; it will drive the Islamic Republic forward in its quest for regional supremacy.

George Perkovich, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, has made it clear that the move is: “part of a very intelligent, creative Iranian strategy—to go on the offense in every way possible and mobilize other actors against the U.S.” (Christian Science Monitor, August 30).

This economic move could be the best and most effective strike against a mighty military foe, the United States.

According to a report published recently by Asia Times, “Oil in euros would benefit millions … in the EU and its trading partners …. And it would loosen the grip the U.S. has on OPEC members”

“One of the Federal Reserve’s nightmares may begin to unfold in the spring of 2006,” one expert on the subject stated, “when it appears that international buyers will have a choice of buying a barrel of oil for $60 on the NYMEX [New York Mercantile Exchange] and IPE [London’s International Petroleum Exchange] or purchase a barrel of oil for €45 to €50 via the Iranian bourse” (Global Politician, September 2).

The IOB will accelerate the already-existent global trend of shifting foreign currency reserves from dollars to euros would. Thus, “countries switching to euro reserves from dollar reserves would bring down the value of the U.S. currency. Imports would start to cost Americans a lot more …. As countries and businesses converted their dollar assets into euro assets, the U.S. property and stock market bubbles would, without doubt, burst” (The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, Nov. 15, 2004).

The impact of a reserve currency switch would be catastrophic for the U.S., according to the Global Politician. The U.S. “would simply have to stop importing” (op. cit.).

If Iran launched its IOB, the U.S. dollar will weaken and the euro strengthen—helping speed up the economic decline of the U.S.

Numerous economists have expressed optimism about Iran’s ambitions, saying that the impact of the Iran oil bourse on the American dollar—and U.S. economy could be worse than Iran launching a “direct nuclear attack.”

http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/review ... ce_ID=9752

[tonetti]

No sus preocupeis que eso no va a pasar mientras los yankis tengas pepinos en sus hangares para lanzar sobre inocentes moricos iranises.

[Sancho]

Estiwi, suponiendo que Irán de el pasito ese, ¿qué hago yo con los dólares que tengo debajo del colchón pa comprar el gasoil del tractor? ¿Se pondrán las imprentas de euros a funcionar a toda màquina? ¿Como coño funciona todo eso?